Sunday, 29 April 2007

Predicta-vote

With four days left before the Scottish Parliament election, my secretary has found a good page on Wikipedia that explains much of the detail. Here's my predictions (which will probably be completely wrong) for how the seats will be allocated afterwards:


  • SNP 43


  • Labour 39


  • Lib Dems 18


  • Tories 18


  • Greens 6


  • Solidarity 1


  • SSP 1


  • Jean T. 1


  • Margo 1


  • SSCUP 1


That's based on a combination of polls, hunches about specific races, effects of tactical voting, and the strange shifts in partisan voting that may take place. Plus, the ethos of "my enemies enemy is my friend" which will come into play in a lot of seats, especially here in the Western Isles.

65 seats forms a working majority. In the extremely unlikely circumstance that my predictions are right, then that leaves the current Labour - Lib Dem coalition short (and unable to carry the Greens with them, as the nuclear issue will get somewhat in the way). So the only two possible majority coalitions would be:

  • SNP - Lib Dem - Green (tricky, but possible if Alex and Nicol agree to disagree about Independence): 67 seats

  • Labour - Lib Dem - Tories (as likely as Celtic and Ranger merging, but would be very funny to see them try to make a pro-union "Anyone but the Nats" coalition like this work): 75 seats


Roll on thursday to see how wrong I am.

2 comments:

  1. You've got a secretary?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Scottish Tory Boy30 April 2007 at 21:10

    I have the Tories down as getting between 18 and 20 with my honest prediction being 19, one up on the current number. Where are the constituency seats that you think the Tories will win?

    ReplyDelete